We have been surprised by how quickly and deeply the stock market has adopted the assumption of a sharp and imminent recession. The S&P 500 has fallen nearly 20% from its all-time high on January 3rd but this understates the decline. The NASDAQ is down 29% and the Russell 2000 is down 23%. Consumer Discretionary […]
VICI Properties (VICI): VICI reported its typically boring quarter with results in line to slightly better than street expectations. Boring is exactly what we like about VICI. As a landlord to the nation’s two leading gaming companies, Caesars and MGM, VICI’s business model is highly predictable. The company collects rents with built-in escalators. Beyond the […]
We are sticking with our preference for large cap and value after reviewing our updated models. We also continue to think exposure to international makes sense in strategies primarily focused on thematic exchange traded funds (ETFs). For clients with strategies using Northlake’s Market Cap and Style models, holdings in the S&P 500 (SPY) and Russell […]
Facebook (FB): FB shares soared off recent lows after the company reported 1Q22 results and issued updated guidance. The stock had fallen about 50% since last summer and was trading at pre-pandemic levels heading into the report. This is a good example of how expectations play a huge role in short-term stock price action. FB’s […]
Due to Steve’s travel schedule, we are going to try something new this quarter with our quarterly blog updates on individual stocks held widely in Northlake accounts. Rather than publish a separate commentary on each stock, we are going to produce two or three updates with each containing comments on several stocks. This will result […]
Northlake’s models are stable for April despite the recent stock market volatility. We are making no changes to our model-driven or thematic strategies. Client assets following our models will remain invested in the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Russell 1000 Value (IWD) reflecting our model signals and market and economic outlook. Thematic strategies not using […]
We are departing from our usual monthly blog update that focuses solely on our Market Cap and Style models and thematic strategies to provide our current thoughts on market volatility surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine and our decision thus far to sit tight and not make major changes to client portfolios. March 2022 Model […]
As a triple net lease real estate investment trust that owns casino real estate properties, VICI Properties (VICI) operates a highly predictable, low volatility business. VICI is a landlord that is paid rent by casino operators like Caesars Entertainment and MGM Resorts. 4Q21 was no exception to VICI’s consistent financial performance with all reported key […]
Home Depot (HD) reported better than expected 4Q21 results driven continued upside in sales. However, investors chose to focus on conservative guidance and modest pressure on gross margins, accelerating the recent pullback in the shares. HD management has been very cautious about forward-looking commentary since the pandemic began despite consistently seeing sales growth well above […]
We are calling an audible on our 2021 purchase of AT&T (T). We have sold the shares and reinvested the proceeds into T Mobile USA (TMUS). We still see value in T shares. However, we see more upside in TMUS. Furthermore, we see the TMUS story playing out over a multiyear period vs. AT&T being […]
