Entries by Steve Birenberg

Back to Large Cap Ahead of Significant Market Catalysts

Northlake’s Market Cap model shifted from mid cap to large cap with the latest monthly update.  The Style model sticks at neutral for the fourth consecutive month.  The change to large cap is driven by technical and trend factors with external factors focused on the economy and interest rates already leaning toward large cap for […]

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3Q22 Earnings Updates: Part One – IBM, GOOG, META, CMCSA, TMUS, AAPL, VICI

IBM (IBM): IBM reported good results in a tough macro environment, further increasing our confidence in the transformation underway at the company.  Revenue and EPS exceeded expectations with strength across all segments of the company.  Management raised 2022 revenue guidance and maintained free cash flow guidance.  The only real negative in the quarter and outlook […]

Equity Strategy Unchanged as Bond Yields Become Attractive

Despite weak and volatile markets in September, we are sticking with our preferences for mid cap and neutrality on growth vs. value.  The September decline in stock and bond markets was broad-based with little variation in performance across market cap, style, sectors, and industries.  Northlake believes the market ended September oversold vs. our expectation for […]

No Strategy Changes Amid Stock and Bond Market Weakness

Last month, we shifted our recommendations for both Market Cap and Style in our model-driven thematic strategies. We moved to neutral on growth vs. value and switched from large cap to mid cap for Market Cap. These changes were recommended by our models and consistent with our views on the market outlook over the next […]

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2Q22 Earnings Updates: Part Two – ATVI, NXST, DIS, WMT, and HD

Activision Blizzard (ATVI): ATVI and Microsoft (MSFT) continue to await a regulatory ruling on the proposed acquisition of ATVI for $95 per share.  The companies expect to close the deal in 2023, and Northlake continues to expect approval despite the large discount to the deal price at which ATVI trades.  Recently, the discount has narrowed […]

Models Shift as Market and Investor Assumptions Change

Our Market Cap and Style models shifted for August.  Market Cap is now recommending mid cap, and Style moved to neutral.  Both models had been on their prior recommendations since the beginning of February. The changes are due mostly to factors driven by the market’s sharp rebound in July that impacted the technical and trend […]

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2Q22 Earnings Updates: Part One – IBM, WMT, GOOG, TMUS, META, CMCSA, VICI, AAPL, SONY

IBM (IBM): IBM reported mostly solid 2Q22 results, but the stock fell victim to its strong performance from earlier this year.  Ahead of the report, the shares were nearly unchanged against a 20-30% decline for major stock market averages.  This strong performance raised expectations for IBM, and a good report with a few small flaws […]

Sticking With What’s Been Working (And Losing Less)

There are no changes to our thematic strategies for July.  Entering the third quarter, we continue to favor large cap and value.  The bias toward value influences our ongoing favorable view of international markets on a relative basis vs. the growth-dominated U.S. market benchmarks.  Among economic sectors, we still prefer value-oriented financials and industrials.  We […]

Playing Offense and Defense at Walmart

We added Walmart (WMT) to Northlake’s individual stock portfolio across the client base.  As always, there could be a few exceptions due to account-level constraints. We like WMT on a fundamental basis, but before we explain that part of the thesis, we wanted to mention two other reasons we made the purchase. First, WMT is […]

Staying the Course Amidst Market Volatility

There are no changes to Northlake’s thematic strategies as we head into June.  We still have a preference for large cap and value and continue to like international exposure which tilts much more toward value than the major U.S. indices that are dominated by large cap growth stocks in technology industries.  Our recommendations of large […]