Last week on Real Money, there was a debate on the growth vs. value question. It began when my colleague, Ed Stavetski asked, “As the economy slows and earnings growth tails off, does one want to own value or growth?” Ed asked the question after reviewing year-to-date returns for the Russell growth and value indices […]
After seven months signaling value, Northlake’s Style model shifted to growth for September. There were no changes in any of the underlying factors this month. Rather, the two month rolling average calculation shifted to growth when June’s value bias was dropped and August data confirmed the shift to growth first picked up in July. As […]
This note was originally written and published on StreetInsight.com on August 2nd. With all the trauma from my the complete crash of my pirmary PC on July 30th, I forgot to post it here. I apologize for my oversight. There were no changes to the signals from Northlake’s market-cap and style models for August. Northlake […]
Northlake’s Market Cap model completed its transition for July by flashing a large cap signal for the first time since June 2005. As a result, I sold all remaining mid cap exposure dedicated to the ETF rotation strategy, swapping it dollar for dollar to large caps. Specifically, at the open on Monday, I sold the […]
The June signals from Northlake’s models led to significant shifts in client and personal portfolios on Thursday. Overall, the changes moved portfolios from being small and mid cap biased to being large cap biased. The result reduces risk and volatility by moving half of the S&P 400 Mid Cap (MDY) exposure to the S&P 500 […]
There were no changes to signals from Northlake’s Market Cap or Style models for May, which continue to flash Mid Cap and Value. Consequently, the positions used to implement these signals are also unchanged: S&P 400 Mid Cap (MDY) and Russell 1000 Value (IWD) and Russell 2000 Value (IWN). The default position of $3 in […]
I am a little delayed getting up the monthly update on the Northlake’s Market Cap and Style models because I wanted to check with Ned Davis Research (NDR), the firm that processes the models, about this month’s readings. For just the second time ever, in monthly readings going back to 1981, the “score” of both […]
There were no changes to Northlake’s Market Cap or style models for March. Client portfolios remain long mid caps and value, which I execute using the exchange trade funds representing the S&P 400 Mid Cap (MDY), the Russell 1000 Value (IWD), and the Russell 2000 Value (IWN). Clients continue to own $3 in IWD for […]
For February, Northlake’s Market Cap model continued to flash a Mid Cap signal as has been the case for every month beginning in September 2005. As a reminder, this model measures ten factors which I group as economic, interest rate, and stock market indicators. Each indicator has historically had predictive value for the relative performance […]
Ned Davis Research has an interesting tidbit today in favor of the recent shift in client portfolios from value to growth. As noted in this chart, investors within Fidelity’s mutual fund complex currently have fewer dollars invested in growth funds than anytime since 1992. This seems like a good contrary indicator especially in light of […]
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