Entries by Steve Birenberg

Staying the Course To Begin 2022

We begin 2022 sticking with our preference for small and mid caps, while remaining neutral on growth vs. value.  Our Market Cap and Style models favor the S&P 400 Mid Cap (MDY) and are neutral on the Russell 1000 Growth (IWF) and Russell 1000 Value (IWD).  These positions will be maintained.  On our thematic strategies, […]

Back to Mid Cap for Above Average 2022 Economic Growth

We are moving back to mid cap after three months of our large cap recommendation, while sticking with our neutral view on growth vs. value. For clients using Northlake’s Market Cap and Style strategies, the shift from large cap to mid cap triggers the sale of the S&P 500 (SPY) with proceeds reinvested in the […]

Home Depot Story Continues to Build

Home Depot (HD) reported excellent 3Q21 results with sales continuing to grow ahead of consensus expectations and surprisingly good gross and operating margins despite supply chain driven cost pressures. Northlake’s investment thesis on HD has been built around three ideas. First, we believe that the pandemic has created a secular increase in willingness of consumers […]

Disney Outlook Leads to Delayed Gratification for Shareholders

Disney (DIS) reported slightly disappointing earnings for its 4Q21 with modest shortfalls across most business segments headlined by preannounced weak Disney+ streaming subscriber additions and poor operating margins at theme parks.  With a new fiscal year starting in October, management took the opportunity to reset expectations across most of its business lines.  Stock Reaction:  Since […]

Activision Headwinds Strengthen

Last quarter we noted that ATVI has been managing the headwinds coming from the employee discrimination lawsuits well.  Looking solely at the results of 3Q21, one would conclude the same thing.  However, the other shoe dropped when the company delayed the release of two important games from 2022/2023 to 2023/2024.  The issues are a loss […]

Nexstar Still Shining

The title of this blog post is similar to when we last discussed Nexstar Media Group (NXST).  This is no coincidence as the company’s 3Q21 earnings report was more of the same good news.  NXST has built nationwide scale of local TV stations, a business than has always generated large free cash flow (TV stations […]

Models Stable Ahead of Fed Taper Decision

We are sticking with our current positioning for at least another month after reviewing the latest updates from our Market Cap and Style models. We will continue to hold current positions following the models including the S&P 500 (SPY), Russell 1000 Growth (IWF) and Russell 1000 Value (IWD).  We will also stick with our preferences […]

Will Apple’s Lost Sales Stay Fresh or Turn Rotten?

When Apple (AAPL) reported its June quarter results, management hinted at supply chain issues beginning to impact the company’s ability to meet demand.  During the quarter, at a conference presentation, the company updated its guidance to note that about $3 billion in sales would be lost in the September quarter.  When the company reported September […]

Comcast Questions Starting Sooner

Comcast (CMCSA) reported another good set of quarterly financial results.  Revenues, EBITDA, and free cash flow all at least met Wall Street estimates in 3Q even as the company had preannounced a slowdown in growth of new broadband subscribers.  From a financial perspective, the huge increase in broadband subs during the peak of the pandemic […]

The Wait is Ending at Sony

Sony (SONY) reported a second consecutive beat and raise quarter. Even after the previous quarterly report, we still thought that guidance was conservative, so we are pleased but not surprised with another step forward confirming our investment thesis.  We could almost republish our last quarterly update and just add today’s date.  Three months ago, we […]