One stock I’ve had my eye on as a possible long is Warner Music Group (WMG). The company reported yesterday and the shares fell slightly in response against a strong market. My working thesis has been that the transition from physical to digital music sales would turn out more favorably than the Street expected. I […]
I continue to think that the big entertainment conglomerates which own movie studios could benefit from a positive shift in sentiment this year if the box office returns to growth. Disney, News Corporation, Time Warner, and Viacom would be the beneficiaries. Improved box office alone isn’t enough to rescue these stocks, but with sentiment quite […]
The Chicago Tribune took another shot at Sears Holdings (SHLD) this weekend with an article (free registration required) recapping a contractual dispute between the retailer and long-time Sears spokesperson Bob Vila. Noting that SHLD is in “demolition mode,” the article recaps CEO Eddie Lampert’s strategy to de-emphasize celebrity endorsers, focusing on the company’s attempt to […]
Lionsgate (LGF) shares are holding up much better than I expected following the company’s disappointing 3Q06 performance and reduction in FY06 guidance. Therefore, I am selling the shares I own for my clients and in my personal accounts. As I stated in my pre-conference call post, I want some distance as I re-analyze the situation […]
I was wrong on Lionsgate (LGF). Big time. The company missed its 3Q06 earnings badly with EBITDA, net income, and free cash flow all falling well short of estimates. The company lowered guidance for each of these items for its full year which ends on March 31. The lowered guidance implies that 4Q06 results should […]
Lionsgate (LGF) reports after the close on Thursday with a pre-open conference call on Friday. Quarterly results for LGF can be quite volatile due to the vagaries of film accounting and significance that a hit or miss at the box office can have on the numbers. Added volatility can occur relative to expectations as the […]
Despite being stalled for most of the last year, Disney (DIS) has generally trended up over the past three years, rising from the upper teens to the mid-$20s. Guess what? DIS is set to complete its fourth straight year of double-digit EBITDA growth. By contrast, Time Warner (TWX) is struggling to stay in the upper […]
Breakup Time Warner! Univision for sale! Knight Ridder up for auction! Viacom splits in two! Clear Channel spins off its billboards and concert business! Cablevision is paying a special dividend – maybe not! Disney sells radio! Disney buys Pixar! Liberty Media splits off QVC! DirecTV is buying back $3 billion of its shares, Comcast is […]
I was talking with a good friend last week who runs a media-centric hedge fund. I was doing my usual rant regarding the mounds of analysis about Time Warner (TWX) coming from analysts, website commentators, and CNBC and noting that it had to be the most overanalyzed stock on the planet. My buddy noted it […]
DirecTV (DTV) shares are up about 3% in response to a solid quarterly earnings report. My key takeaway is that the street is beginning to respond favorably to the company’s transition to a controlled growth strategy where EBITDA and free cash flow growth is paramount and subscriber growth is secondary. The street is also pleased […]
