March 2008 Model Signals

There were no changes for March to Northlake’s Market Cap and Style models that I use for ETF allocation. The signals remain mid cap and growth. The mid cap signal remains a weak one that could shift back to large cap next month. The growth signal is moderately strong and got a little stronger last […]

Viacom: Turn On Track But Lacked Upside in 4Q07

Viacom reported solid results that were at the high end of expectations but I would not call it an upside surprise. Guidance for 2008 was for low double digit EPS growth which would put EPS in line with the current consensus. I think the results and guidance are good enough to support the recently improved […]

Good Quarter, Good Outlook For Central European Media Enterprises

Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) reported excellent 4Q07 results easily beating estimates on revenues, EBITDA, and EPS. Revenues and EBITDA grew 40% and 33%, respectively, with all six countries where the company owns TV stations or networks beating my estimate for revenue and five of the six countries beating my estimate for EBITDA. To gain […]

Cablevision Dealling Well With Competition For Now

Cablevision reported better than expected results driven by its core Cable operations and Madison Square Garden. Revenues grew 11% to $1.84 billion ahead of consensus of $1.78 billion. EBITDA grew 20% to $610 million, ahead of estimates for $560 million. Financial and subscriber metrics at the Cable systems were better than expected. Revenues rose 8.6%, […]

NII Holdings: Finally In The Clear?

NII Holdings (NIHD) reported better than expected 4Q07 financial results yesterday but the shares sold off sharply anyhow. I can see three potential issues. First, EBITDA guidance is a bit low even after adding back the $30 million in unexpected expenses related to upgrading the company’s network in Peru to 3Q. Revenue guidance is in […]

Selling Regal Entertainment

I posted the following on Real Money before the open on February 27th explaining my decision to sell client holdings of Regal Entertainment. By way of background, Doug Kass is a major figure on Real Money and appears regularly on CNBC. He manages hedge funds that are dedicated to selling short. This means he bets […]

Reviewing Rogers Communications

I feel I have done a good job and a bad job with Northlake’s investment in Rogers Communications (RCI). On the one hand, I initially purchased RCI for clients in December 2006 around $29. With the stock at $39, up 34%, I should have no complaints. However, in early November the stock was in the […]

Stability At Comcast

Comcast provided the stability and achievable guidance that is required to get a relief rally and improve sentiment toward the shares. The financial and subscriber results for 4Q07 were very close to guidance provided on December 4th. If anything the financial results for revenue, EBITDA, operating margins, and free cash flow were slightly better than […]

News Corp Looking At Yahoo?

News Corporation has sat out this week’s rally, falling about 2%. I think the problem is fear over a bid for Yahoo. These fears persist despite very strong denials of interest from Rupert Murdoch and Peter Chernin on the quarterly conference call just ten days ago. The latest rumor is some sort of joint bid […]

In Line Quarter and Positive Guidance Clears The Way for Regal

Prior to its 4Q07 earnings report last Thursday, shares of Regal Entertainment had already recovered from the sharp sell-off driven by poor box office trends during the fourth quarter. A strong start to the box office in 2008 also was helping. The recovery gained steam following the report which was inline with expectations and a […]