Merrill Lynch has put out the latest edition of its quarterly report on pricing trends in travel industries. I summarized this report last quarter because it think it offers insights into both inflation trends and the health of the economy. The inflation link is self-explanatory. On economic health, my theory is that pricing in travel […]
Northlake’s Market Cap model shifted from Mid Cap to Large Cap for April. As a result, I sold all client positions in the S&P 400 ETF (MDY) and swapped into the S&P 500 Spyder (SPY). The underlying indicators in the model were unchanged. This shift occurred because the model is based on two-month smoothing and […]
Last Friday, the Newspaper Association of America released its 4Q07 and full year 2007 advertising expenditure data. Not surprisingly, the NAA titled its press release, “Online Advertising Jumps 19 percent in 2007.” The only problem with headline is that online advertising represented just 7.5% of all newspapers ads last year. Print advertising, which represents the […]
https://northlakecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/nl_logo.gif00Steve Birenberghttps://northlakecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/nl_logo.gifSteve Birenberg2008-03-31 16:27:172026-03-17 16:58:30Newspapers Final 2007 Data As Ugly As Expected
The upfront TV advertising market will kick off in May as usual despite dire protestations during the writer’s strike that it would be a casualty of a new post-strike business model for broadcast and cable networks. NBC is saying it will not participate as usual but all the rest of the major broadcast and cable […]
https://northlakecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/nl_logo.gif00Steve Birenberghttps://northlakecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/nl_logo.gifSteve Birenberg2008-03-20 13:43:202026-03-17 16:58:30Previewing The TV Upfront
Catching up some email, I found a couple of interesting pieces on the major media companies from Merrill Lynch analyst and my friend, Jessica Reif Cohen. Back in early March, Jessica noted that as a group the media companies she follows reported 4Q07 earnings ahead of her estimates. Her universe had revenue growth of 15% […]
https://northlakecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/nl_logo.gif00Steve Birenberghttps://northlakecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/nl_logo.gifSteve Birenberg2008-03-19 09:35:522026-03-17 16:58:30Big Media Fundamentals Holding Up For Now
I was quite pleased with the 4Q07 results, 2008 guidance, and conference call from American Apparel (APP), which reported after the close last night. The consensus I was using consisted of just one analyst so it wasn’t really meaningful. Just three analysts asked questions on the call but they were enthusiastic, asked a lot of […]
https://northlakecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/nl_logo.gif00Steve Birenberghttps://northlakecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/nl_logo.gifSteve Birenberg2008-03-18 09:32:492026-03-17 16:58:30Good News From American Apparel But Stock Remains Under Pressure
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) shares have steadied since the sharp fall last week following announcement and pricing of their convertible deal. The timing on the convert was terrible coming in the midst of the market’s meltdown. I think the fact that it included a complicated capped call transaction made folks shutter as complicated is […]
For 2008, I have treated myself to a subscription to SNL Kagan. Kagan is a long-time research firm focusing on media with a great reputation. They don’t care if I mention their research, in fact they encourage it. This week in their Media Money newsletter, Kagan looks at the windows between movies in theatres and […]
https://northlakecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/nl_logo.gif00Steve Birenberghttps://northlakecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/nl_logo.gifSteve Birenberg2008-03-12 08:51:112026-03-17 16:58:30Watching Movie Windows
The weekend box office fell by 33% against what is probably the toughest comparison it will face until May. The box office has now declined for 5 straight weekends but remains up almost 7% year to date. Comps may remain negative for a few more weeks but the rate of decline should moderate significantly. Analyst […]
The UK newspaper The Observer is reporting that it has seen a new memo outlining possible private equity approaches to Virgin Media. VMED has been a rumored private target for some time and it is generally accepted that private equity made an offer in upper $20s or low $30s over a year ago. VMED is […]
https://northlakecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/nl_logo.gif00Steve Birenberghttps://northlakecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/nl_logo.gifSteve Birenberg2008-03-10 15:20:542026-03-17 16:58:30Virgin Media Back In Private Equity Game?
What Do Inflating Travel Costs Mean?
Merrill Lynch has put out the latest edition of its quarterly report on pricing trends in travel industries. I summarized this report last quarter because it think it offers insights into both inflation trends and the health of the economy. The inflation link is self-explanatory. On economic health, my theory is that pricing in travel […]
April 2008 Model Signals
Northlake’s Market Cap model shifted from Mid Cap to Large Cap for April. As a result, I sold all client positions in the S&P 400 ETF (MDY) and swapped into the S&P 500 Spyder (SPY). The underlying indicators in the model were unchanged. This shift occurred because the model is based on two-month smoothing and […]
Newspapers Final 2007 Data As Ugly As Expected
Last Friday, the Newspaper Association of America released its 4Q07 and full year 2007 advertising expenditure data. Not surprisingly, the NAA titled its press release, “Online Advertising Jumps 19 percent in 2007.” The only problem with headline is that online advertising represented just 7.5% of all newspapers ads last year. Print advertising, which represents the […]
Previewing The TV Upfront
The upfront TV advertising market will kick off in May as usual despite dire protestations during the writer’s strike that it would be a casualty of a new post-strike business model for broadcast and cable networks. NBC is saying it will not participate as usual but all the rest of the major broadcast and cable […]
Big Media Fundamentals Holding Up For Now
Catching up some email, I found a couple of interesting pieces on the major media companies from Merrill Lynch analyst and my friend, Jessica Reif Cohen. Back in early March, Jessica noted that as a group the media companies she follows reported 4Q07 earnings ahead of her estimates. Her universe had revenue growth of 15% […]
Good News From American Apparel But Stock Remains Under Pressure
I was quite pleased with the 4Q07 results, 2008 guidance, and conference call from American Apparel (APP), which reported after the close last night. The consensus I was using consisted of just one analyst so it wasn’t really meaningful. Just three analysts asked questions on the call but they were enthusiastic, asked a lot of […]
CETV Presents At Bear Stearns Conference
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) shares have steadied since the sharp fall last week following announcement and pricing of their convertible deal. The timing on the convert was terrible coming in the midst of the market’s meltdown. I think the fact that it included a complicated capped call transaction made folks shutter as complicated is […]
Watching Movie Windows
For 2008, I have treated myself to a subscription to SNL Kagan. Kagan is a long-time research firm focusing on media with a great reputation. They don’t care if I mention their research, in fact they encourage it. This week in their Media Money newsletter, Kagan looks at the windows between movies in theatres and […]
Weekend Box Office and Weather Channel Updates
The weekend box office fell by 33% against what is probably the toughest comparison it will face until May. The box office has now declined for 5 straight weekends but remains up almost 7% year to date. Comps may remain negative for a few more weeks but the rate of decline should moderate significantly. Analyst […]
Virgin Media Back In Private Equity Game?
The UK newspaper The Observer is reporting that it has seen a new memo outlining possible private equity approaches to Virgin Media. VMED has been a rumored private target for some time and it is generally accepted that private equity made an offer in upper $20s or low $30s over a year ago. VMED is […]