I firmly believe that the stock market is way oversold. Current levels for the major indices and most stocks will be significantly higher within the next six to twelve months. Prices reflect a significant global recession driven by the crisis in the financial system. The near-term is being driven by emotional trading in thin and […]
I spent all weekend hitting refresh on my browser monitoring the news on Lehman, AIG, and Merrill Lynch. Apparently a bunch of Americans decided to do something else: go to the movies. The weekend box office rose 35% from a year ago, breaking a seven weekend losing streak. The last up weekend was the opening […]
https://northlakecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/nl_logo.gif00Steve Birenberghttps://northlakecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/nl_logo.gifSteve Birenberg2008-09-14 16:59:522008-09-14 16:59:52Weekend Box Office Finally Up – Start of A Trend?
With the conventions and the Olympics over, the next big event in the TV world is the launch of the fall TV season. Things have been kind of quiet on this front which I had thought was due to the poor advertising environment. However, a recent preview by Goldman Sachs may have a better explanation: […]
https://northlakecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/nl_logo.gif00Steve Birenberghttps://northlakecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/nl_logo.gifSteve Birenberg2008-09-12 09:37:432008-09-12 09:37:43Important Fall TV Season For Networks Set To Launch
Given all the market volatility and really important macro issues, sometimes I feel bit odd writing about mundane fundamental factors for media stocks but maybe focusing on the micro is a useful distraction. A couple of days ago news broke that Google has reached with NBC to access TV ad inventory across a wide array […]
https://northlakecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/nl_logo.gif00Steve Birenberghttps://northlakecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/nl_logo.gifSteve Birenberg2008-09-10 14:45:272008-09-10 14:45:27Googles Expands TV Biz with NBC
I think the biggest benefit of the Treasury takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is that it will unclog the market for mortgage backed securities. With an explicit US Treasury guarantee, yield spreads on Fannie and Freddie debt should drop sharply. Inventory of MBS should decline. Banks should feel comfortable lending again to quality […]
The recovery in American Apparel continues as the stock crossed $10 yesterday for the first time since the beginning of April. The stock bottomed out below $6 in late July and August. The latest catalyst was August comp stores sales which reported yesterday at 31%! APP has been comping at or above this level all […]
The world of TV transitioned from the Olympics to the political conventions over the past week. The ratings of each event provide some insight to investors. Broadcast networks (ABC/Disney, CBS, FOX/News Corp, and General Electric/GE) are still the only place where really large audiences can be reached. This is true for event programming or nightly […]
https://northlakecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/nl_logo.gif00Steve Birenberghttps://northlakecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/nl_logo.gifSteve Birenberg2008-09-04 09:33:582008-09-04 09:33:58Cable Nets Best Positioned Media
For the first time since August 2005, Northlake’s monthly Market Cap model is flashing a small cap signal. As a result, I sold all client and personal positions that tin the S&P 400 Mid Cap (MDY) that track this model and reinvested dollar-for-dollar in the Russell 2000 (IWM). Small caps have outperformed for several months […]
It looks like a weak finish to the summer box office will leave Summer 2008 just short of Summer 2007’s all-time record. Labor Day weekend is down 22% for the top 12 films likely making it five straight weeks of negative growth. According to my data, pulled from BoxOfficeMojo.com, from the first weekend in May […]
Looks like I got a bit lucky with the timing of last week’s sale of Northlake’s remaining position in Rogers Communication (RCI). On Friday, it was reported that Telus and Bell Canada will be building a competitive HSPDA network that could undercut Rogers monopoly on high end customers and roaming. The stock got clipped on […]
https://northlakecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/nl_logo.gif00Steve Birenberghttps://northlakecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/nl_logo.gifSteve Birenberg2008-09-02 11:35:392008-09-02 11:35:39Lucky Timing on Final Rogers Sale
Special Market Comment
I firmly believe that the stock market is way oversold. Current levels for the major indices and most stocks will be significantly higher within the next six to twelve months. Prices reflect a significant global recession driven by the crisis in the financial system. The near-term is being driven by emotional trading in thin and […]
Weekend Box Office Finally Up – Start of A Trend?
I spent all weekend hitting refresh on my browser monitoring the news on Lehman, AIG, and Merrill Lynch. Apparently a bunch of Americans decided to do something else: go to the movies. The weekend box office rose 35% from a year ago, breaking a seven weekend losing streak. The last up weekend was the opening […]
Important Fall TV Season For Networks Set To Launch
With the conventions and the Olympics over, the next big event in the TV world is the launch of the fall TV season. Things have been kind of quiet on this front which I had thought was due to the poor advertising environment. However, a recent preview by Goldman Sachs may have a better explanation: […]
Googles Expands TV Biz with NBC
Given all the market volatility and really important macro issues, sometimes I feel bit odd writing about mundane fundamental factors for media stocks but maybe focusing on the micro is a useful distraction. A couple of days ago news broke that Google has reached with NBC to access TV ad inventory across a wide array […]
Fannie and Freddie Bailout
I think the biggest benefit of the Treasury takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is that it will unclog the market for mortgage backed securities. With an explicit US Treasury guarantee, yield spreads on Fannie and Freddie debt should drop sharply. Inventory of MBS should decline. Banks should feel comfortable lending again to quality […]
American Apparel Story Gaining Credence
The recovery in American Apparel continues as the stock crossed $10 yesterday for the first time since the beginning of April. The stock bottomed out below $6 in late July and August. The latest catalyst was August comp stores sales which reported yesterday at 31%! APP has been comping at or above this level all […]
Cable Nets Best Positioned Media
The world of TV transitioned from the Olympics to the political conventions over the past week. The ratings of each event provide some insight to investors. Broadcast networks (ABC/Disney, CBS, FOX/News Corp, and General Electric/GE) are still the only place where really large audiences can be reached. This is true for event programming or nightly […]
September 2008 Models: Shifting to Small Caps
For the first time since August 2005, Northlake’s monthly Market Cap model is flashing a small cap signal. As a result, I sold all client and personal positions that tin the S&P 400 Mid Cap (MDY) that track this model and reinvested dollar-for-dollar in the Russell 2000 (IWM). Small caps have outperformed for several months […]
Weak Finish Overshadows Strong Summer Box Office
It looks like a weak finish to the summer box office will leave Summer 2008 just short of Summer 2007’s all-time record. Labor Day weekend is down 22% for the top 12 films likely making it five straight weeks of negative growth. According to my data, pulled from BoxOfficeMojo.com, from the first weekend in May […]
Lucky Timing on Final Rogers Sale
Looks like I got a bit lucky with the timing of last week’s sale of Northlake’s remaining position in Rogers Communication (RCI). On Friday, it was reported that Telus and Bell Canada will be building a competitive HSPDA network that could undercut Rogers monopoly on high end customers and roaming. The stock got clipped on […]