February 2007 Model Signals

Both of the models in Northlake’s ETF rotation strategy sent new signals for February. The market Cap model shifted from Mid Cap to Large Cap and the Style model shifted from Growth to Value. As a result of these changes, I swapped client positions in the S&P 400 Mid Cap (MDY) for the S&P 500 […]

Comcast: Capital Spending Should Not Be Penalized

Comcast (CMCSA/CMCSK) reported 4Q06 results that were very close to extremely high expectations. Guidance for 2007 is also very close to current analyst expectations with the notable exception that 2007 free cash flow is forecast the same as 2006 due to an increase in projected capital expenditures as Comcast expects to sign up more customers […]

Time Warner 4Q06 Good Enough

Time Warner (TWX) reported 4Q06 results that were very close to analyst estimates across the board. There don’t appear to be any surprises in the overall results or at the segment level. On first glance, it appears that AOL and Cable performed at least well as expected, possibly with a little upside. TWX also provided […]

Scripps Guidance Ignites Questions; Too Soon To Buy

E.W. Scripps (SSP) shares are deservedly down sharply following poor 1Q07 guidance issued in association with its 4Q06 earnings report. A re-evaluation of the prospects and valuation for the company’s Interactive division is also hurting the shares. Finally, management backed away from comments made at a conference earlier this month that it might have interest […]

Verizon Should Keep Working Higher

Verizon (VZ) reported solid 4Q06 results, closely matching analyst estimates is most key areas. VZ is a huge company with lots of closely followed metrics so there are always some pluses and minuses but in general I see little change to the story as a result of the earnings report and management commentary about 2007. […]

A Look at Apple’s Valuation

After reading through a lot of analyst comments about Apple’s earnings, I think I captured the general consensus well with my follow-up piece. Most analysts agree with my bullish view and the fact that numerous catalysts exist over the balance of 2007, particularly as the June and September quarters become the focus of investor attention. […]

A Potential Headwind For Comcast

Keep on eye out for some negative publicity that could hit Comcast (CMCSA/K) in the next few weeks. Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBGI) and Comcast are getting close to the drop dead date over their negotiations for payment of retransmission fees by Comcast to Sinclair so that Comcast can continue to carry the TV broadcast signals […]

Sears Holding Follow-Up

Late last year, I sold my position in Sears Holding (SHLD) on the basis that I no longer had an edge in analyzing the shares. I am willing to buy back the shares if I feel my edge returns, so I was especially interested when Credit Suisse analyst Gary Balter, the clear axe in the […]

One Reason The Market Has Done So Well

I am not a trader and Northlake’s investment strategy is designed to outperform on a relative basis so whether the market goes up or down is a little less important to me than other money managers. However, that doesn’t mean that I am not amazed by the steady strength in the market since July. Steady […]

Radio Industry Should Boost Dividends

Credit Suisse had an interesting report earlier this week about the radio industry that has broader implications. The thesis was that radio operators should establish signficant quarterly dividends as the best use of still substantial, if no longer growing, free cash flow. Dividends were preferred relative to share repurchases or just holding cash. Among the […]