Entries by Steve Birenberg

July 2009 Model Signals: A Shift to Value

For the first time since February, there has been a change on Northlake’s Core and Explore ETF models. The Style model has moved to Value after spending 5 months at Growth. The new Value signal is weak, just barley in Value territory on Northlake’s 0 to 100 scale. However, five of the nine underlying indicators […]

Over The Top Video Threat Less Than The Hype

The following commentary first appeared in the “Dow of Steve” blog on SNL Kagan’s subscription website on June 17, 2009. The most significant secular debate in the TV industry surrounds over the top video (OTT). Whether or not consumers cut the cord has significant ramifications for cable and satellite companies, broadcast and cable TV network […]

Strong Hints Jobs is Back Working at Apple

Yesterday morning on Twitter I noted that Steve Jobs was quoted in Apple’s press release announcing 1 million sales of the new iPhone 3Gs. I quickly completed a scan of Apple press releases going back to late March and found no other instance of Jobs being quoted. This morning, AppleInsider.com reported the same and stated […]

Apple as Religion

SNL Kagan, which publishes the Dow of Steve blog, recently had an article discussing lower prices initiated by apple in the Mac and iPhone product lines. The article fairly noted that the price cuts were in response to the weak consumer environment and tough competition while also noting that Apple still maintains its premium pricing […]

June 2009 Model Signals Still Favor Small Cap and Growth

There are no changes to Northlake’s Market Cap and Style models for June. The signals remain small cap and growth. As a result, client positions in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and the Russell 1000 Growth (IWF) will be maintained. The Market Cap and Style models provide monthly signals projecting relative performance of small cap vs. […]

Time Warner Officially Jettisons AOL

I have been strongly in favor of a separation of AOL from Time Warner (TWX) for several years. I am not convinced there is much hidden value in AOL but getting rid of a management distraction and significant negative talking point for investors should be helpful to TWX’s stock valuation. In addition, AOL is has […]

M&A Speculation Hits Hollywood

Over the past few trading days, shares of the two major independent Hollywood studios have moved up sharply. Dreamworks Animation (DWA) is up four straight days for a total of 13%. Lionsgate (LGF) is up 16% over two days. Both stocks were unusually strong on Tuesday on well above average volume. Another studio in the […]

Box Office Up Again But Story is Studios Not Theaters

Last weekend is a good reminder of why box office analysis is not as simple as it seems. The overall weekend in North America was solid, up 5.4% for the top 12 films according to BoxOfficeMojo.com, the year –to-date comparison remains very strong at +15%. The summer season also remains strong, up 16.9% from the […]