My pals at Ned Davis Research (NDR) provided a reminder about how the markets respond well to crisis events. I’m not sure the latest phase of the decline that began in mid-May was necessarily triggered by the Mideast crisis but I think the blow-up in Lebanon does qualify as a crisis event. NDR has identified […]
In a post yesterday on Real Money, my colleague Jim Cramer noted that despite massive sell-offs in equity markets in Brazil and India, he wasn’t yet seeing any real weakness in the fundamentals for either economy. I think Jim’s comments probably go beyond Brazil and India to include most other emerging markets. Of course, a […]
Sorry for the lack of posts recently but there has been lots of news on stocks of interest to Northlake clients that has occupied my time. Here’s a brief recap:
As outlined in recent posts, we expected the weakness experienced by the market the last few days. Besides the poor corporate earnings, which was the catalyst we expected would cause a pullback, oil prices have spiked up again to their recent highs. High energy prices are actually part of our thesis for expecting weak earnings, […]
The Fed raised rates 25 basis points and kept its commentary relatively unchanged. The market responded with a small rally. The focus will now shift back to earnings, which we expect to kick off a pullback in stock prices. Oil as moved up to its highest levle in about a month which also presents a […]
The Dow and S&P were weak on Monday in the face of earnings warnings from Colgate Palmolive, New York Times, and PMC Sierra. Colgate fell 11%, NY Times fell 2%, but PMC actually rose 4% and kicked off a rally in the NASDAQ led by semiconductor stocks. The NASDAQ rally was a surprise but doesn’t […]
Lehman Brothers had some interesting research out this morning regarding the seasonality of stock prices as it relates to the third and fourth quarters and election years. This research supports our view posted earlier today of near-term caution followed by year end strength….
The market enters the second half of September near its recent highs after a strong rally off the early August lows. Northlake’s recommended stocks and models have performed well in the rally but we are beginning to take a more cautious view. Quarterly earnings season is about to start and…
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