We have been surprised by how quickly and deeply the stock market has adopted the assumption of a sharp and imminent recession. The S&P 500 has fallen nearly 20% from its all-time high on January 3rd but this understates the decline. The NASDAQ is down 29% and the Russell 2000 is down 23%. Consumer Discretionary […]
What began as a normal correction related to a quicker than expected increase in market interest rates (the 10 year Treasury rose from 2.5% to 2.8%) accelerated on Monday afternoon due to trading related to volatility strategies. These strategies helped the market on the upside over the past year but are largely unrelated to economic […]
Nice rally today. It didn’t get much commentary in the financial press but all day I was telling contacts that the infrastructure of Wall Street benefited from a big up day because it was quarter end. While I am not a conspiracy theorist I suspect that played a role in the rally. Another thing I […]
I spent yesterday afternoon and evening traveling from Chicago to Salt Lake City on my way to the Sundance Film Festival in Park City. In the morning, I chatted with my mortgage broker. He told me he was getting flooded with calls but not a lot of action yet. He said he many clients that […]
Overseas markets continued to fall sharply last night in Asia and today in Europe. Two day losses in many markets while the US was closed for the Martin Luther King holiday reached 10% or more. US futures have been trading down between 4% and 7% since Sunday night. In response to what can only be […]
There is a lot more on investor’s minds these days than the 2008 Presidential election. However, the Iowa caucuses are just 16 days away and recent polls indicate the races in both parties are extremely unpredictable. Who knows if past market patterns in Presidential election years will hold given the overwhelming focus on the health […]
Periodically when the market is in an unusually volatile period I like to look at a performance of a wide variety of indices in order to see if there are any anomalies. This time I decided to look at the recovery off the August 16th intraday low. You will remember that was the day where […]
The sell-off since the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average made all-time closing highs on July 19th has been broad. All the major indices I track are down between 7% and 11%. I track these indices looking for divergences in returns that might be a clue to where leadership is emerging and whether prior […]
As usual, Ned Davis Research (NDR) has some interesting data on last week’s sell-off in regards to answering the question whether we have entered a bear market. Defining a bear market as a 30% drop in the DJIA after 50 calendar days, a 13% decline in the DJAI over 145 calendar days, or a 30% […]
I am not a trader and Northlake’s investment strategy is designed to outperform on a relative basis so whether the market goes up or down is a little less important to me than other money managers. However, that doesn’t mean that I am not amazed by the steady strength in the market since July. Steady […]
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