Time Warner (TWX) shares fell for the 7th straight day yesterday, no doubt continuing the negative reaction since word spread that AOL might switch strategies again. The stock has dropped 5.1% in total, erasing about $3 billion in market value. As I noted in a post last week, the shift away from a subscription model […]
Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal carried an article confirming the rumors I have been writing about concerning major changes at AOL. The most important takeaway is that AOL wouldn’t be considering such drastic action unless the deterioration in fundamentals was accelerating. That means dial-up subscribers are still leaving at a fast clip, broadband subscribers under the […]
I read a post on Henry Blodgett’s blog about two weeks ago alluding to the major layoffs at America Online (AOL). I do not know the writer, but I have found the discussion at Henry’s blog to be quite good. SInce then, more outlets are reporting rumors of large layoffs and weak advertising growth. There […]
Time Warner (TWX) reported mixed results. The headline numbers looked real good but after adjustments it was just another quarter of mediocre growth with flat revenues and mid-single digit EBITDA growth. Free cash flow continues strong and the share buyback has been very aggressive, both of which provide near-term support for the shares and add […]
Time Warner (TWX) shares have firmed up recently as investors are taking a more optimistic view of its most important division: Cable. Yes, that’s right, cable. Despite all the focus that AOL will receive when the company reports earnings on Wednesday morning, it is cable that stands to be largest driver of TWX shares. Regardless […]
The market has reacted coolly to the settlement between Time Warner (TWX) and Carl Icahn as TWX shares given up all their gains since the company reported earnings and the Icahn-Lazard report was released. I think the additional debt funding a larger share buyback is incrementally positive for TWX shares, especially if visibility for upper-single […]
I was talking with a good friend last week who runs a media-centric hedge fund. I was doing my usual rant regarding the mounds of analysis about Time Warner (TWX) coming from analysts, website commentators, and CNBC and noting that it had to be the most overanalyzed stock on the planet. My buddy noted it […]
Time Warner (TWX) reported 4Q05 earnings pretty much inline with expectations with revenue and EBITDA both coming in very close to analyst estimates. As usual, the mix at the segment level was a little different than expected. The company also provided EBITDA growth guidance for 2006. EBITDA is expected to grow in the upper single […]
If there were an equation that measured media and analyst coverage vs. stock price volatility, Time Warner (TWX) would probably produce an answer nearing infinity. Dare I say a google. Tomorrow provdes the stock another chance to offer some excitement when TWX reports 4Q05 earnings. The results are expected to be quite strong, consistent with […]
I am generally unimpressed by the AOL-Google (GOOG) deal as far as Time Warner’s valuation is concerned. I value Time Warner (TWX) on a sum of the parts basis and due to the compression in multiples throughout media over the past year I just don’t see a huge valuation discount for TWX unless all media […]
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