Entries by Steve Birenberg

Best Case For Apple

I’ll be covering Apple’s earnings call after the close. Here is my preview. I decided to look at aggressive assumptions to see where a best case scenario might be for the December quarter. Since the stock needs both a substantial beat and decent guidance I wanted to see what the beat might look like. Here […]

Apple 1Q08 Preview

Another Apple earnings report comes after the close today, so time for lots more overanalysis and outsized volatility in the usually volatile shares. Estimates have been rising as the quarter went along since it became apparent that Mac sales were booming. News from MacWorld that Leopard and iPhone sales were ahead of expectations in the […]

Special Market Comment

Overseas markets continued to fall sharply last night in Asia and today in Europe. Two day losses in many markets while the US was closed for the Martin Luther King holiday reached 10% or more. US futures have been trading down between 4% and 7% since Sunday night. In response to what can only be […]

Disappointing Guidance From Rogers

Before the open on Monday, Rogers Communications (RCI) announced 4Q07 subscriber growth below expectations, doubled its dividend, initiated its first ever share repurchase, and reported mixed 2008 guidance. In response, RCI shares fell 6.2%. I decided to hold off on writing up my thoughts until the smoke cleared and following a little defense by a […]

NII Holdings Gets Back On Track

Yesterday, NII Holdings (NIHD) announced better than expected 4Q07 subscriber growth, completion of a large buyback, initiation of another buyback, and an impressive new CEO. The shares were up 9.5%. I added NIHD to a new account, the only one I have that didn’t already own a full position, just after the open yesterday and […]

January 2008 Model Signals

Northlake’s Market Cap model (courtesy of Ned Davis Research) shifted from a large cap signal to a mid cap signal for January. There was no change in the Style model which continues to flash a growth signal. As a reminder the Market Cap and Style models I use send monthly signals predicting relative performance over […]

Why I Bought News Corporation

Back in July, I wrote a review of News Corporation for RealMoney.com outlining the bull case. The analysis remains relevant today so in light of the purchase of News Corporation shares for Northlake clients earlier this week, I am reproducing the article so you can learn more about this new holding…. I like News Corporation […]

DVD Sales Moderately Weak But No Disaster

I still got my eye on holiday DVD sales. Data is now available at the-numbers.com through December 16th. This includes the launch of the latest Harry Potter film and the second week of sales for Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End. Please note that this data is for the US only. This could be […]

Selling Comcast. Buying News Corporation.

Partially driven by tax considerations, I sold Northlake’s entire position in Comcast yesterday. I used the proceeds to purchase a full position in News Corporation. I completed this trade across Northlake’s entire base of separately managed client accounts and in my two main personal accounts. The Comcast long proved to be disastrous. My analysis of […]

TV Ad Market Strong. For Now.

On Monday, the New York Post reported that scatter market TV advertising on the big four broadcast networks is running up 18%. Scatter market represents TV ad inventory available for sale on the spot market. This price increase is occurring despite another year of accelerated declines in ratings for prime time network TV shows. What […]