Entries by Steve Birenberg

No Apple Super Cycle But Super Financial Strength

Apple (AAPL) reported strong growth but mixed results relative to expectations for its 1Q18 ending December 31st.  iPhone unit sales fell short of still high expectations but higher than expected average selling prices allowed revenue growth to match or exceed Wall Street estimates.  Specifically, iPhone unit sales fell a little short of the 80 million […]

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Google Margins Concerns Emerge Again But We Are Not Very Worried

Google (GOOG/GOOGL) shares fell after reporting 4Q17 earnings.  Revenue growth remained remarkably strong, rising 24% year over year, but Traffic Acquisition Costs (TAC) and other operating expenses rose even faster leading to margin compression and EPS below expectations. The debate for Google investors has long been focused on (1) the sustainability of revenue growth, and […]

Cleaning Up News Feed Not Slowing Facebook

Despite some worries related to recent changes to Facebook’s (FB) News Feed, the company reported another outstanding quarter with revenues rising 47% and operating leverage again evident even as the company continues to caution about increased spending.  More importantly, the company’s words and tone when discussing the impact of changes that could limit time spent […]

Moving to Neutral on Growth vs. Value

Northlake’s Style model moved to a neutral reading for February, showing no favoritism for growth vs. value.  This change leads to the sale of one half of client positions in the Russell 1000 Growth (IWF) with proceeds reinvested into the Russell 1000 Value (IWD).  IWF and IWD are now equal position sizes in client accounts.  […]

Comcast Reality Ahead of Fears

Comcast (CMCSA) reported an inline quarter with upside in the closely watched video and broadband subscriber metrics.  Consolidated revenues grew 4% and adjusted EBITDA was flat after taking into account $171mm in employee bonuses related to tax reform.  The cable business grew revenues 3% and adjusted EBITDA 4% as margins expanded. NBC Universal had 4% […]

Shifting Away from Small Caps to Begin 2018

Northlake’s Market Cap model shifted from small cap to mid cap to start 2018.  The Style model still recommends growth although the underlying indicators shifted strongly toward value.  The new mid cap signal shifts the Style model from small cap growth to large growth since the Style model will only be in small cap mode […]

Sticking With Small Cap and Small Cap Growth To Yearend

There are no changes to the recommendations from Northlake’s Market Cap and Style models for December.  The Market Cap model remains on a small cap signal for the second consecutive month and the Style model favors growth for the third consecutive month.  The signals from both models strengthened slightly for December.  Client positions following the […]

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Liberty Media Third Quarter Review

During November, Liberty Media reported third quarter earnings and hosted its annual analyst meeting.  A portion of the Northlake client base owns stock in companies controlled by Liberty Media including Formula One Group (FWONA/FOWNK) and Liberty Sirius (LSXMA/LSXMK).  Liberty regularly creates tracking stocks or spins off companies they control.  We have gradually sold off many […]

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Is the Bottom In for TV Stocks?

TV stocks have had a good rally in the past week for the first time since May.  Among Northlake positions, this includes Disney (DIS), CBS Corporation (CBS), and Nexstar Media Group (NXST).  Each has rallied between 5-10% off of at or near 2017 lows.  The challenges facing TV have metastasized this year.  The issues are […]

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Further Improvement at Liberty Global

We have been wrong on Liberty Global (LBTYK) for more than two years.  The shares peaked at over $50 in 2015 and now sit at $30.  The $50 price was fed by takeover speculation but even so the shares have vastly underperformed a bull market.  The shares have still returned over 50% from our original […]