Entries by Steve Birenberg

Crash A Winner For Lions Gate

While the world focused on the astounding box office numbers for the latest Star Wars film, Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF) had another successful weekend at the box office with Crash. Crash has now grossed over $27 million and has shown the best legs of any film this year, falling just 20% in each of its […]

SBS Broadcasting Starts 2005 In Fine Form

SBS Broadcasting(SBTV) reported excellent first quarter earnings on Monday. Driven by better than expected organic revenue growth in the company’s television operations, EBITDA exceeded estimates coming in at 8.1 million euros. Management affirmed prior guidance for 138 million euros EBITDA for 2005. On the call analysts asked many questions that tried to get management to […]

Disney Story Intact Following Strong Quarterly Earnings

Disney (DIS) reported strong quarterly earnings earlier this month and the follow-up conference call confirmed operating trends remain excellent across the entire company. The shares sold off a bit when the earnings were reported but have since rallied to their highest level since late April as analysts had favorable commentary and raised earnings estimates for […]

Central European Media Enterprises To Clarify 2005 Guidance

CETV announced last night that they will hold a follow-up conference call tomorrow morning to clarify 2005 guidance provided on the first quarter results conference call held on May 10. The guidance caused confusion, particularly among new shareholders who bought shares on the secondary offering, and led to a sharp drop in the shares. I […]

Lion’s Gate Entertainment: Hollywood’s New Big Cat

Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF) is the largest independent motion picture studio. The company also produces television shows and owns a library of over 6,200 films and 1,800 television episodes. LGF produces inexpensive movies by Hollywood standards with all-in costs in the neighborhood of just $20 million. The company has had success with horror films and […]

May Model Signals

The updated monthly signals from the market capitalization and style (growth vs. value) indicators showed no change for May. The models still favor large cap and value. Since these models are based on the weight of the evidence, I also look at the month to month trends in the strength of the signals and here […]

Improved Ratings At ABC Help Disney’s TV Stations

Last week, I initiated a position in Walt Disney (DIS) based on the company’s strong operating momentum and identifiable catalysts. Among the several catalysts I mentioned was the upfront market, the launch of Hong Kong Disneyland in the fall, 3Q EPS to be reported on May 11 (better than expected with rising guidance and estimates […]

Upfront Ad Market A Potential Catalyst for Disney

One of the reasons I like Disney (DIS) is that it has strong fundamental operating momentum with identifiable catalysts. One catalyst is the upfront network television advertising market that gets underway this month. The upfront market occurs each spring when the broadcast and cable television networks sell options on much of the advertising time for […]

Disney: New Buy

Disney Investment Thesis: Strong fundamentals with identifiable catalysts make DIS the choice among big-cap entertainment stocks despite its premium valuation compared to its peers. I’ve been very close to taking a long position in Disney (DIS) over the past couple of months. My working thesis has been that fundamental momentum is the strongest at DIS […]

Motorola Finally Getting Some Respect

Beginning with the first quarter of 2004, Motorola (MOT) has reported five consecutive quarterly earnings reports that have matched or exceeded Wall Street estimates. Unfortunately, MOT shareholders have gone largely unrewarded for this impressive string of results as Wall Street has failed to embrace MOT’s turnaround despite mounting evidence. Following last week’s better than expected […]