Nice rally today. It didn’t get much commentary in the financial press but all day I was telling contacts that the infrastructure of Wall Street benefited from a big up day because it was quarter end. While I am not a conspiracy theorist I suspect that played a role in the rally. Another thing I […]
After many months of monitoring and researching, I finally got long Discovery Communications in Northlake client accounts on Friday. The shares are temporarily trading under the tickers DISAD (voting) and DISCK (non-voting). In twenty days DISAD will revert to DISCA. There is also an illiquid class of super voting DISCB shares. New DISAD/DISCA shares no […]
The activity in the financial markets and on the regulatory front is absolutely amazing. I’ve been managing money since 1982 when the Dow was well below 1,000, and I have never seen anything like this, not even the 1987 crash. My operating thesis this week was that we had reached a turning point in the […]
I firmly believe that the stock market is way oversold. Current levels for the major indices and most stocks will be significantly higher within the next six to twelve months. Prices reflect a significant global recession driven by the crisis in the financial system. The near-term is being driven by emotional trading in thin and […]
I spent all weekend hitting refresh on my browser monitoring the news on Lehman, AIG, and Merrill Lynch. Apparently a bunch of Americans decided to do something else: go to the movies. The weekend box office rose 35% from a year ago, breaking a seven weekend losing streak. The last up weekend was the opening […]
With the conventions and the Olympics over, the next big event in the TV world is the launch of the fall TV season. Things have been kind of quiet on this front which I had thought was due to the poor advertising environment. However, a recent preview by Goldman Sachs may have a better explanation: […]
Given all the market volatility and really important macro issues, sometimes I feel bit odd writing about mundane fundamental factors for media stocks but maybe focusing on the micro is a useful distraction. A couple of days ago news broke that Google has reached with NBC to access TV ad inventory across a wide array […]
I think the biggest benefit of the Treasury takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is that it will unclog the market for mortgage backed securities. With an explicit US Treasury guarantee, yield spreads on Fannie and Freddie debt should drop sharply. Inventory of MBS should decline. Banks should feel comfortable lending again to quality […]
The recovery in American Apparel continues as the stock crossed $10 yesterday for the first time since the beginning of April. The stock bottomed out below $6 in late July and August. The latest catalyst was August comp stores sales which reported yesterday at 31%! APP has been comping at or above this level all […]
The world of TV transitioned from the Olympics to the political conventions over the past week. The ratings of each event provide some insight to investors. Broadcast networks (ABC/Disney, CBS, FOX/News Corp, and General Electric/GE) are still the only place where really large audiences can be reached. This is true for event programming or nightly […]
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