Echostar: I Prefer Other Multichannel TV Stocks
Echostar (DISH) reported 3Q05 revenue and EBITDA right in line with expectations at $2.1 billion and $501 million, respectively. However, the EBITDA figure included a $35.1 million one-time benefit. Therefore, EBITDA appears to be short of expectations and is likely the reason the shares are trading down over 2% as the conference call wraps up. Another possible cause of the weakness is ARPU coming in at $57.78 vs. consensus estimates of about $58.60. Closely watched subscriber acquisition costs matched analyst estimates at $670. Churn was up in the quarter but apparently the company proactively called subscribers in Alabama and Mississippi t turn off their subscriptions as opposed to billing them knowing a write-off would come in 4Q. Excluding the hurricane impact, churn appears in line with expectations….
I have not listened to a lot of DISH calls over the years so I am not sure how to interpret the fact that the call had little discussion of the EBITDA shortfall. Margins contracted which must be because ARPU was light and/or promotions were high. DISH has a very aggressive campaign to win customers from cable and also uses an everyday low pricing strategy.
Most of the questions concerned long-term issues such as technology upgrades. The implication is that analysts are very concerned about the company’s competitive positioning given the single product nature of the business. While management was quite open with its discussion of analyst questions, I didn