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April 05, 2009

Box Office Accelerates Furiously

The box office boom kicked into top gear this weekend as Fast and Furious opened to $72.5 million, shattering expectations and the prior record for April. According to BoxOfficeMojo.com, the weekend was up an astounding 89.8% for the top 12 films. The top two films pulled in $106 million, up 10.8% from the entire slate of 128 films a year ago. The box office is no2 up 12.6% in 2009, a figure well ahead of analyst estimates at the start of the year.

Not surprisingly, shares of movie theater stocks have been market leaders since this year. Regal Entertainment (RGC) is up 42% and Cinemark Holdings (CNK) is up 32%. In theater advertising company National Cinemedia (NCMI), in which RGC and CNK have significant ownership stakes, is up 42%.

Comps remain easy through April but stiffen as the summer season kicks off the first weekend in May. Last summer was surprisingly strong with many films finding audiences consistently throughout summer. This summer's slate compares well but keep in mind that The Dark Knight grossed $500 million last summer and ranks #2 on the all-time domestic list.

Many analysts raised estimates for theater stocks last week and more estimate increases are on the way. Rising estimates correlate well with rising stock prices so look for further gains in RGC, CNK, and NCMI. There are very few companies with rising estimates given the economy so money managers will find it hard to resist the group. Until comps slow or turn negative. But that won’t happen until May at the earliest.

At the studio level, Fast and Furious belongs to Universal, which is owned by GE....

Fast and Furious has a rumored production budget of $80 million. Marketing may be another $50 million but the studio should easily recoup those costs from its 55% of the worldwide gross which will surely be north of $300 million. Revival of the franchise should boost DVD sales of the first three films which along with decent sales for the new film should make the picture extremely profitable for GE. GE is a huge company so the financial benefits may not be material but they certainly are a bit of positive news for the troubled conglomerate.

The #2 film this weekend was Monsters vs. Aliens from Dreamworks Animation (DWA). MvA fell by 44%, a strong but not outstanding hold. The film is slightly lagging Ice Age 2 which went on to gross $195 million in North America. $180 million is acceptable for DWA shares but falls short of the $200 million plus I believe is necessary to boost DWA shares. The international rollout remains mostly ahead of MvA. It could change my opinion in either direction. No data on how 3-D performed relative to 2-D on the second weekend.

Posted by Steve Birenberg at April 5, 2009 01:32 PM in Box Office