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August 13, 2008

The Credit Market Problem

Today's New York Times had a good article explaining why the lending availability is drying up in the US. This is a very important point for the near-term market and economic outlook. Our economy requires easily available credit to function near maximum efficiency. Credit availability went over the top in the past few years expanding debt levels well beyond reason. What I think happens next is a long period of unwinding where financial company, business, and consumer debt levels are reduced. This will create a great headwind for the economy likely leading to sub par economic growth for the next six to twelve months at least. Stocks can rise while this happening if investors can look beyond the sluggish period to the next growth phase. One of the key things investors will look at will be credit conditions. That is why this article is worth reading. When these indicators begin to bottom and then move in the right direction the stock market will do better. When they get better on a sustained basis the next bull market will begin.

Posted by Steve Birenberg at August 13, 2008 09:50 AM in Stock Market