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March 20, 2007

Media Madness

A few small items in the media world that are cluttering up my desk:

• Last week FCC Chairman Kevin Martin appeared before Congress for the first time since the Democrats took control. The questioning made it very clear that the FCC will face much different Congressional oversight until at least January 2009. Fortunately, the agenda for media companies is not that heavy but pending and rumored mergers are likely to find a much tougher road to approval.
• Martin's testimony revealed that the FCC will consider reestablishing the 30% ownership cap for any multichannel service provider, cable or satellite. This should not create much of an obstacle to further industry consolidation. Presently, a DirecTV-Echostar merger would just barely slide in under the proposed cap. Additionally, either Time Warner Cable (TWC) or Comcast (CMCSA/K) could acquire Cablevision (CVC).
• According to a Reuters article, 40% of all sub prime loans were made to Hispanics. There are already some signs that Hispanic advertising growth is slowing from its historical rate. I wonder how much Hispanic radio and TV advertising was from sub prime lenders. I also wonder if the sub prime meltdown could cause damage specifically to the Hispanic economy that could impact general advertising trends to the important population. Negative implications might exist for Spanish Broadcasting (SBSA) and Entravision (EVC).....

• As theatres upgrade to digital projection, expect a big expansion in 3-D enabled screens. I read an article that said currently there are 700 3-D enable theatres and that number is expected to grow to 6,000 to 8,000 by 2009. The upcoming Disney (DIS) release Meet The Robinsons will get a lot of 3-D distribution which is being supported by Disney's marketing campaign. More 3-D films is a benefit for theatre operators like Regal Entertainment (RGC) as 3-D is not presently replicable in a home theater.
• The box office was up 3.3% this past weekend according to BoxOfficeMojo.com. Year to date the box office is up 4.2%. RGC's 1Q07 includes the final weekend of 2006 and wraps a week from Thursday. On this basis, the box office is up over 5% so far this quarter. Comparisons toughen considerably in April but investors will look ahead to the guaranteed record breaking May when the third films in the Shrek, Spiderman and Pirates of the Caribbean franchises hit theatres.
• Speaking of Pirates, the theatrical trailer for the Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End had its world premiere Monday night on Disney.com. Here is a link.

Posted by Steve Birenberg at March 20, 2007 10:13 AM in Media