1 MICC IS DOING OK TODAY ON SOME GOOD NEWS FROM RAWANDA
2 CETV CONTINUES TO BE BEATEN DOWN TODAY WITH THE CLOSING OF THE RUSSIAN STOCK MARKET TO PRICES NOT SEEN FOR 5 YEARS.DO YOU THINK CETV CAN WEATHER THIS PERFECT STORM?

I was downtown all day and could not return your messages. I talked with a hedge fund manager who is one of biggest shareholders. He spoke to the company. They are saying that they are standing by their October comments when the stock was $25 and they said that in local currency 2009 will be an up year. They have now sold another 10% of their 2009 budget in the Czech Republic and are up to 40% and they are saying they are up at least 10% vs. the same budget a year ago. Heck they are even saying that Ukraine looks like it may be up next year which is actually better than what they were saying three weeks ago.

Obviously the sellers do not believe as the company now has a $500 million market cap. Czech alone will make over $200 million this year. IF it is just flat next year with down revs and aggressive cost cuts, the currency hit will take it to $150 million. The whole company is worth the current price at that level in Czech Republic.

Debt and survivability are not even an issue. I don’t get it. I could see why speculators would short or longs would sell to a point given what is going in the world but the valuation makes no sense.

1 The cetv presentation at Morgan Stanley was first rate and suggests CETV will continue to do well during this credit crunch and , assuming no imminent depression is a tremendous buy.
2 However,there is any obvious disconnect between stock price and value at present. The question is whether this present stock price is false and is refective of unfounded fear and a negative bubble/or is true and reflective of the beginning of an economic ,long standing crisis/depression with dissolution of our economic structures.Time will tell. CETV,I believe,will survive everything but a long 1929 style depression.
3. I disagree with you to some degree as to the cause of these violent downward movement of stocks in general.Although the inital,underlying cause of the stock market drop is,of course, the economic problems and the credit crunch,the rapidity and severity of the drops suggests unusual stock market function.A famous fund manager/cnbc analyst on tv today indicated that the absence of the uptick rule and the presumed attacks on individual stocks by multiple hedge funds shorting seems to have led to daily drops in some stocks much greater than 20% and sometimes as great as 70%. These drops and volatility are much greater than normal. One hopes that that the congress and new administration can successfully deal with the market asap in a more successful way.
4 The fact that CETV held up well today was hopeful despite this severe dow drop of 400. However, if this bear market does not abate soon, most good stocks and almost all financials will be in single digits.
5 The mind set of the investors is very negative. Despite an upgrade by ubs and a new license in Rawanda, MICC was down more than $1 today.A technician today predicted a drop by the dow to 7,000. I hope he is wrong.

I really don't have a lot to add. Your commentary here is excellent. I agree with most of it wholeheartedly. We really won;t know if we are right about good companies like CETV until the market provides a sustained rally and the company gets a chance to report results that supports it contention that its business will hold up reasonably well in 2009. I am a believer but the macro issues are in control and present a strong case that visibility on 2009 even for CETV is quite poor.

You are right that technical factors are contributing to the drubbing in the market but at its core is the fear the economy is black hole. The technical stuff will take care of itself if the market could stabilize and the uptick rule is reinstated. We also need more volume so that volatility dies down and the futures and ETFs don;t move the market all by themselves.