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November 08, 2007

Box Office Finally Revives

Last weekend, the domestic box office broke a long slump with receipts rising for the first time in six weeks. American Gangster provided the oomph bringing in a better than expected $43.5 million. Bee Movie also helped with a gross of $38 million although the figure was below expectations of $40-45 million. These two films brought in 78% more than the top two films on the same weekend a year ago but lack of depth at the box office, indicative of weak performances for most films so far this fall, limited the overall weekend gain to just 3%.

Quarter to date the box office is down about 8% but summer strength leaves the year date gain north of 6%. This coming weekend could be a very large gain as last year saw just one new release that did not produce a big number. With the second weekend of American Gangster and Bee Movie and high expectations for family comedy Fred Clause, a significant dent in the negative quarterly comparison is in order. The pickup in weekend comps should generally continue through year end which ought to be enough to keep Regal Entertainment shares and their 5%+ current yield as a top pick in an uncertain market.

The other weekend box office news continues to be generated by Disney's Ratatouille which again won the overseas box office battle. Ratatouille brought in $15 million raising its international gross to $371 million and its total gross to $576 million. Both figures are significantly better than expected. Ratatouille has the lowest domestic gross of the last six Pixar films but it looks like it will pass The Incredibles to become the #2 Pixar film in international markets trailing only Finding Nemo. On a worldwide basis, Ratatouille will finish third among all Pixar films. This is all good news for Disney which should report a strong overall quarter after the close on Thursday.

Posted by Steve Birenberg at November 8, 2007 02:16 PM in Box Office