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April 25, 2007

Regal Entertainment and NII Holdings 1Q07 Earnings Previews

Regal Entertainment (RGC) and NII Holdings (NIHD) report before the open on Thursday. I'll be visiting with clients out of town most of Wednesday and Thursday so I won’t be able to get any comments on the results until Friday. The following brief previews should help you put the numbers in perspective....

RGC is expected to report EPS of 9 cents on revenues of $598 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be near $109 million. Comparisons against a year ago are not apple-to-apples due to the IPO of National Cinemedia (NCMI) which will reduce the contribution RGC receives from the leading in-theatre advertising company. Nevertheless, it should be a strong quarter for the core theatre operations as the domestic box office rose 7% during RGC's quarter. RGC has about 1% fewer screens this year so look for admissions and concessions revenue to rise 5-6%. EBITDA margins should expand slightly. I think RGC shares have another $2-3 in upside over the next few months as the summer box office gets off to an anticipated strong start. RGC remains an excellent total return vehicle with the $1.20 annual dividend equating to a 5.7% yield on top of improving fundamentals as the box office slump appears to be over.

NIHD is expected to report EPS of 48 cents on revenues of $699 million. Service revenue is expected to rise 35-40% with Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and Peru all growing at least 35%. EBITDA is expected to grow 25-30% as NIHD is still feeling some margin pressure from the expansion of its network in Mexico. The margin pressure is expected to reverse in 2H07 as the build out is finished. Net subscriber additions should be around 280,000, up more than 40% vs. 2006, lead by close to 50% gains in Mexico and Brazil. Churn is expected to remain low and comparable to a year ago at 1.6%. ARPU should remain stable $58. NIHD remains very well positioned for high growth as it continues to gain subscribers rapidly throughout its service territory. With margin expansion expected in 2H07 and 2008, the shares should be able to hold their historic multiple which would drive the stock to $90-100. I think that move will occur once investors are comfortable with the margin expansion. 1Q07 results should be helpful in that regard.

Posted by Steve Birenberg at April 25, 2007 08:48 AM in RGC