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April 25, 2007

Apple 2Q07 Earnings Preview

My colleague at StreetInsight.com, Ben Thomas, will be providing officail coverage of Apple's earnings report for the site. I'll be listening to the call and have my own comments but here is Ben's preview. He captures my views well although I'd add that guidance could be even more conservative than usual given the dealy in Leopard and the psssibility that the iPhone launch leads to a pause in iPod demand. Additionally, I thin consensus on iPod shipments in the March quarter is more like 10.5 million units.

Here is Ben's preview...

Apple (AAPL) is scheduled to report earnings after the market closes Wednesday, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 EDT. Current projections call for the company to produce EPS of $0.64 on total revenue of $5.2 billion. Those are the official Street estimates, but I think everybody is expecting some upside. Recently, the stock has bounced on an enthusiastic outlook for the iPhone, expected margin relief and a little bit of a clearing of the option grant overhang.

Product Focus

Investors will be tuning in to hear about all sorts of different topics, including the latest on the iPhone. Last we heard, it was still expected to ship in June. I would like to hear what the plan is for pricing (carrier subsidizing prices any?) and an update on backlog. iPods will also be a major point of interest. How many did the company sell this quarter? 11 million? 11.5 million? Is there a wi-fi edition timetable? Seems like everybody is so excited about all the other fun segments that they overlook the core Mac business. The latest IDC numbers suggest that Apple cracked 5% total market share. Expect unit sales in the 1.5 million neighborhood.

Margins

The Street expects a little better margin due to rapid price declines in materials cost -- such as NAND, DRAM and MPUs.

Option Overhang

It's clearing up, but there is one last person (general counsel) that is making a fuss. Look for management to be dismissive but perhaps provide a clue as to how problematic this last person could be.

Guidance

It's always disappointing at first, but that's because everybody knows that the company is going to eventually beat those numbers.

Strategy
I have taken the strategy of adding to my position on pullbacks and trimming on run-ups, and I plan to do so for the next few quarters.

Posted by Steve Birenberg at April 25, 2007 08:55 AM in