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January 30, 2006

Weekend Box Office Report: Oscar Nominations Coming Soon

The weekend box office saw the top dozen films gross 5% less than a year ago but with the final weekend in January in the books, Hollywood has to be pleased with 2006 so far. Heading into this weekend, the box office was up more than 9%, a nice turn from the dismal 2005 performance, and even adjusted for ticket price inflation the increase implies ticket sales are in positive territory so far this year.

20th Century Fox had its first number hit in over five months as Big Momma's House 2 opened to a better than expected $28 million. 20th Century Fox is a subsidiary of News Corporation (NWS/NWS.A). NWS is a giant global company but it never hurts to get the #1 spot at the weekend box office and the fact the film is a sequel give could give a modest boost to the original film in the home video rental window....

Universal Pictures, part of General Electric (GE) owned NBC Universal also had good news this weekend as Nanny McPhee came in a strong #2 with $14 million, also better than expected.

Not much else with investment significance in the weekend results but I do want to point out the continuing success of The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch, and The Wardrobe. The Disney film fell just 29%, pulling in over $4 million, raising its domestic gross to $278 million. The film is just over $8 million behind the latest installment in the Harry Potter Series.

Oscar nominations are due out Tuesday morning and the Best Picture nominations can really boost the gross of the selected films. This quote from BoxOfficeGuru.com provides some perspective:

From a business perspective, the nomination can often mean more than an actual Best Picture win since the film gets positioned as a major contender for five long weeks. Many film buffs want to see as many of the five nominees as possible before Oscar night so each pic can fatten its gross tremendously. The big winners in recent years have had different distribution strategies which in turn affected their benefit from the Oscars. Films like The Return of the King and A Beautiful Mind were already playing in wide release for many weeks before nominations were announced while last year's Million Dollar Baby was prancing around in limited release before coming out swinging in wide release after the nominations came out. But Chicago and Shakespeare in Love were both released in a pattern similar to Brokeback Mountain with gradual expansion throughout January reaching wide play by the time Oscar nods were announced. Each film saw its pre-nomination cume double by Oscar night plus rose much higher after taking home multiple statues.

I'm still cheering for a Best Picture nomination for Crash from Lionsgate (LGF). The film has been available on DVD for some time now but the nomination would still provide an economic boost and also further enhance LGF as a place where to producers, directors, actors, and screenwriters want to do business. Both film critics in the Chicago Tribune predicted Crash would get a Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Supporting Actor nomination. If so, it could be another event in the renewed momentum for the shares that I believe can take the shares over $10 by the end of February.

Posted by Steve Birenberg at January 30, 2006 02:07 PM in Box Office