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September 24, 2007

Box Office Update

The weekend box office fell 2% for the top 12 grossing films. This breaks a string of 10 consecutive up weekends. The drop-off vs. last year is less than $1.7 million so it is possible, but doubtful, that when actual results as opposed to estimates are tallied the winning streak will continue.

The box office has also been up ten consecutive weeks, with the week ending July 12th being the last down comparison. Over the 70 days, the domestic box office total just over $2 billion, up 17% or $295 million, from 2006. At times I wonder about my own and others fascination with the box office totals but the bottom line is this is a big business. I follow lots of companies that don’t pull in $2 billion in revenue in a year!

The third quarter which began on June 29th for the theatre companies ends this coming Thursday. If the weekend comparison holds for the full week, the quarter will end up 15%. The year to date total through three quarters will be up 7.8%. As I have noted several times recently, analysts are seeing the big gains and estimates have risen steadily for Regal Entertainment and the other leading theatre chains. Regal shares have bounced back strongly and now sit just 4% below their all-time high, even after paying out $2.90 in dividends this year, including the going ex-dividend for 30 cents the week before last. With interest rates still well below levels of a few months ago, the shares still look attractive with easy box office comparisons continuing in the fourth quarter and a healthy current yield of 5.4%.

While the box office fell short this past weekend, there was good news for a couple of studios. Sony held the top spot with the third installment of the Resident Evil franchise. The film showed little deterioration from the first two installments. Lionsgate shareholders should also be happy as Good Luck Chuck opened to a slightly better than expected $14 million. Lionsgate has had a series of disappointments at the box office so far this year so the shares may respond to some good news.

Posted by Steve Birenberg at September 24, 2007 01:15 PM in Box Office