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May 01, 2007

Weekend Box Office: Spiderman is Coming

The weekend box office was extremely week, declining 27% against the same weekend a year ago. The total haul of $75 million was the lowest since last the weekend after Labor Day last September. According to BoxOfficeMojo.com, it was the lowest final weekend of April since 2000.

Back-to-back poor weekends leave the box office down 5% so far this quarter and have pulled the year-to-date comparison to up just 3% vs. a year ago. Is it time to be worried about the box office is dead theme re-emerging? NO. Spiderman 3, Shrek The Third, and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End are about to come riding to the rescue, kicking off what should be a record-breaking summer (yeah, summer box office starts the first weekend in May).

Next weekend along could bring the quarter back to even and by the time Shrek hits theatres the following the weekend the quarterly and yearly growth comparisons will be looking real good again. Last summer got off to a lousy start with Mission: Impossible 3 and Poseidon opening to $47 million and $22 million, respectively. I guarantee you that Spiderman 3 will comfortably beat the combined openings of those two films on the first two weekends last May. Shrek will do the same. And Pirates will beat the at the time record Memorial Day opening weekend of X-Men by at least 15%.

If you are looking for a little for some guidance an how Spiderman might open, BoxOfficeMojo.com is a great site. Here is a link to the top 125 all-time opening weekends. I am calling Spiderman 3 at $130 million and the combined opening 3-day weekends at $378 million.

Posted by Steve Birenberg at May 1, 2007 09:42 AM in Box Office