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September 01, 2004

September Model Signals

No changes to the signals from Northlake's Market Capitalization and Style models for September. The Market Cap model signal favors Large Cap. This model favored either small or mid cap from late 1999 through May of 2004. A Large Cap signal emerged in June but shifted back to Mid Cap in July. August and September now are both in the Large Cap camp, confirming a trend toward factors that favor Large Caps. In particular, the shift in the economy toward a more sustainable GDP growth rate favors Large Caps.

The Style Model remains firmly in Value territory as it has been since the spring of 2000 with only occasional shifts towards Growth. Value has performed very well in this time period, first as a defensive investment against the bear market, and then as the economy recovered and cyclical companies saw rapidly improving earnings prospects. Value is also favored when the economy is in a sustainable mode rather than an accelerating or topping mode.

Posted by Steve Birenberg at September 1, 2004 11:35 AM